Coronavirus
A recent study in Santa Clara County in California undermines the deadly plague theory.
A random sample of 3300 people were tested. Of those 2.5-4.2% were found to have antibodies for Covid-19. When this rate was applied to the total population, it was estimated that there were 48,000 to 81,000 infections in the county.
This compares to 956 confirmed cases in the county at that time.
Which means that the total infections were 50-85 times the number of documented cases.
This means that the Infection fatality rate is 50-85 times lower than the “confirmed cases” fatality rate. In other words, the Infection fatality rate is a lot closer to seasonal flu than it is to the figures of 3.4% to 10% mortality being quoted by media and government.
Now, let’s apply some of those findings to the situation that we experience in Ireland.
As of today 28 April, Ireland has 19,648 documented cases of Covid-19. There have been 1,102 deaths attributed to Covid-19. This leads to a 5.6% case fatality rate for Covid-19. It is a figure like this that leads the media to talk about a deadly plague.
Now, since there has not been a random test to ascertain the infection rate in Ireland, we have no idea how many infections there are in Ireland. However, the government has ads running stating that 80% of people who get Covid-19 symptoms, have mild symptoms. There is an unknown number who have no symptoms. There have also been the random tests done in Italy, Iceland, and now California, which indicate that there are large numbers of infected and asymptomatic people in each case.
So lets apply the California rates to Ireland for an estimate:
Ireland’s population is 4,928,000 approximately. On the California estimates, there would be
123,200-206,976 infections in Ireland.
That would lead to an infection mortality rate of 0.89%-0.53%
Its true that this is higher than the 0.1% mortality rate estimated for annual flu. It also has to be acknowledged that some have claimed that 0.1% is the case fatality rate for flu.
According to the WHO there are 3-5 Million severe flu cases annually, with 290,000 to 650,000 deaths. That equates to 9.67% to 13% death rate of severe flu cases. The best estimate of flu infections I can find is 1.17 billion. Averaging deaths at 450,000 per annum, gives an infection mortality rate of 0.04%. That is twenty times lower than infection mortality rate of Covid-19.
Please bear in mind, the WHO is still stating that the mortality rate of Covid-19 is 3.4% worldwide, with over 10% mortality rate in Italy. It is those figures that are causing the dire predictions of mass deaths.
But there are other factors to take into account also:
1,102 deaths have been attributed to Covid-19 in the 48 days since the first death in Ireland.
For comparison, The first quarter of 2019 saw 566 deaths from respiratory disease.
However, the first quarter of 2019 also recorded 2,497 deaths from heart disease.
In Italy and the USA, and presumably in Ireland, anyone who dies and tests positive for Covid-19 is recorded as a Covid-19 death. Even if they die of heart attack. This was not the case in previous years. If a person had respiratory disease and died of a heart attack, it was recorded as heart attack. There is a difference between dying with Covid-19 and dying of Covid-19. Right now everyone who dies with Covid-19 is recorded as dying of Covid-19.
It will be interesting to see if there is any significant increase in Ireland’s death rate during this time. Ireland’s death rate equates to 2,872 per month in any given month. Covid-19 has had 711 deaths per month. But are these an additional 711 deaths? That is the key question.
It also has to be borne in mind that the median age of death for Covid-19 in Ireland is 81 years.
Ireland’s life expectancy at birth in 2019 was 82.8 years.
Thank you for reading those calculations. Let’s summarize:
- Based on confirmed cases, the media is presenting Covid-19 as a deadly plague.
- However, based on random tests now done in three seperate countries, the Infection Mortality Rate of Covid-19 is worse than annual flu, but not in the league of deadly plagues.
- Added to that, is the unusual practice of recording every death associated with the disease as being caused by the disease, and we will have overestimates of mortality.
- It looks like Covid-19 will add something to the monthly death rate in Ireland, but not in the order of a plague.
- Covid-19 is more deadly than annual flu, but is not in the league of a deadly plague..
- It is dangerous to those who are very old, and have known pre-existing conditions.
To avoid any dispute over accuracy of these estimates, there are two things that will really help.
1. Do a random test of a population to estimate the infection rate in Ireland.
2. Publish the total death figures for the 48 days since the first Covid-19 fatality. This will indicate the amount by which Covid-19 has added to deaths compared to any other year. Unfortunately, in 2019 there was a 42 day average delay between death and registration of death. But so much extraordinary measures have been taken in the last two months, it would be a relatively simple task to speed up the calculation of deaths for the last 48 days. This will be a most important figure.
If the media and government are correct, the figure will be normal deaths, plus at least 711 extra Covid-19 deaths. Any amount less than 711 extra deaths per month will show us the amount by which Covid-19 deaths have been exaggerated.
It looks more and more clear that the seriousness of Covid-19 is being vastly overstated. And perhaps this will explain all the dancing nurses videos:
Effects of Lockdown
Now that we can see that the risks of Covid-19 are being overstated, we have to consider the response we are being forced to comply with. What is the effect of the lockdown?
We are being told that we absolutely must adopt the extreme “stay at home” and “social distancing” measures to avoid the Covid-19 pandemic from destroying us. Given the over-estimated mortality rate, we are being panicked into extreme actions. But at what cost?
If the dangers of Covid-19 are being overstated, are the costs of the lockdown being understated?
- To begin with we have gone from 4% unemployment, full employment for practical purposes, to a projected rate of up to 18% in the next month or two.
- Add to this that the finance minister has announced the Covid-19 emergency payment will have to be cut very soon.
- Add to this that the economy in Ireland is set to contract by 7%
- Add to this that for every 1% increase in unemployment there is a 1% increase in the suicide rate.
- Add to this the disruption to the supply chain for all kinds of goods and services.
- Add to this the thousands of small businesses that have been destroyed by the lockdown, many of which won’t survive.
- Add to this the astronomical cost of the interest that is to be charged by the banking cartel for issuing the credit that governments rely on to function while we all sit idle.
Our health and well being is very much dependent on the functioning of what is a very sophisticated but inter-dependent civilization. It has never been tried before to just shut down an advanced civilization and make everyone stay home for two months. We have no idea what the consequences of this will be.
But one thing is for sure: It is childish to think that we can do anything as extreme as this and not have to face extreme consequences. Continuing this lockdown on the basis of overestimated risk and ignorance of the consequences of lockdown is folly.
And the alternative? We already know exactly who the at risk groups are: It is mostly older people approaching the end of their lives and who have precarious health. Plus those with certain health conditions. We should continue to isolate those groups, and immediately let the rest of the population get back to work. Because the health of the entire population depends on our civilization functioning.
The next Question is why?
Why is Covid-19 being hyped so much, and why are we being locked down to our detriment?
That is a question I will deal with in the next post.
Responses to readers comments:
In a previous post I stated that Covid-19 is just the flu. A reader pointed out that Covid-19 is a corona virus, and is not influenza virus. While this is correct, it is also the case that most cases of “flu” during annual flu season are not caused by influenza virus, but by a variety of viruses, including influenza and corona viruses.
Another comment: “Are you aware Iceland closed down their country almost immediately…” While this may be the case, it does not affect the calculation of total infections and total mortality rates. While closing down may affect the total number of cases, surely it won’t change the nature of the disease so that it has a different mortality rate?
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