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The global lockdown has been initiated because Covid-19 is perceived to be “a deadly plague” and “a deadly pandemic”. However, this perception is based on an exaggerated mortality rate. In a normal flu season, the total number of infections is estimated, and this is compared to the total deaths attributed to complicatrions arising from flu. This yields a fairly low mortality rate of around 0.1%. Still this leads to 250,000 to 650,000 deaths from flu every year.

Even though Covid-19 is a flu virus, we are being told that it has a much higher mortality rate. Hence it is called “a deadly plague”. The reason it appears to have a high mortality rate, is because the rate is calculated based on the total number of confirmed cases. Because testing is confined to those who display symptoms, we can expect that the number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of infected people. Based on this miscalculation we get the over inflated mortality rate. And the consequent mass hysteria.

Fortunately Iceland did some rational thinking and some science, and they tested 10% of their population, so that the total number of infections can be estimated. But before we look at those figures, lets look at some of the headline mortality rates that are causing such over-reaction:

All of the following data is from worldometers.com. You can check the figures for yourself. Data is from 14/04/20.

1. Worldwide cases, 1,917,219. Deaths 119,090. Mortality rate worldwide is 6.2%. (Mortality rate is calculated at deaths divided by  cases and multiplied by 100 to express as a percentage.) It is from calculations such as this that we get the panic reactions and mass lockdowns that we see.

2. UK cases 88,621. Deaths 11,329. Mortality rate is a shocking 12.78%. No wonder the media calls this a plague.

3. Ireland cases 10,647. Deaths 365. Mortality rate is 3.42%

4. Iceland cases 1,711. Deaths 8. Mortality rate is 0.47%

5. For comparison: Annual flu mortality rate is 0.1%

Why is there a disparity in the mortality rates above? Is it, as the media tells us, because Covid-19 is a “deadly pandemic”? Or could there be another reason?

The real reason for the high reported mortality of Covid-19 is that the mortality is calculated on confirmed cases, mostly from tests done on those with severe symptoms who report to hospital, or testing centres. This is the case in UK and Ireland.

With the flu mortality, the total number of infections is estimated, and the mortality rate is calculated based on that figure. If the annual flu had the mortality rate calculated from those who have severe symptoms, we would have an annual flu mortality rate of 9.66%. In that case I suppose we can just close down the entire Northern Hemisphere from October until May every year. (According to the WHO, annual flu results in 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths. I used the lower figures to calculate the 9.66% mortality). Of course, the flu has far more infections than cases of severe symptoms. In fact, it has approximately ten times more infections than severe cases. This results in an estimated mortality rate of 0.1% for annual flu. And for that reason we do not close down the world every winter.

It is interesting to note the low mortality rate for Covid-19 reported in Iceland (0.47%). This is because Iceland did a lot of testing of the general population. Thus they were able to identify many infections of Covid-19 that showed little of no symptoms. Like the flu. Thus they could show a figure closer to the actual amount of infections, rather than the number of severe cases. As a result Iceland shows a mortality rate of 0.47%. This figure is extraordinarily lower than the UK mortality rate of 12%. It is much closer to the annual flu mortality rate of 0.1%. In fact, given that Iceland tested 10% of its population to find the total number of infections, it can be assumed that there are even more unsymptomatic infections in the 90% untested population. Adding an estimate of those numbers to the total infections would result in an even lower mortality rate, even closer to annual flu.

Another example of infections being higher than reported cases, is the Italian town of Vo. The entire population of 3,000 was tested, and fully 3% were found to test positive for Covid-19. Most of these infections had no symptoms.

Another recent study found that for each confirmed case of Covid-19, there can be five to ten undetected infections with mild or no symptoms. All of the above facts can be verified via this link. Article on Iceland testing also here.

The experience of Iceland, and other data, all show that there are a great many people who have Covid-19 and show little or no symptoms. That means there are many more infections than there are severe cases. Which means the actual mortality rate of Covid-19 is a lot lower than we are being led to believe.

The more time goes by, and the more facts that emerge, it becomes clearer that Covid-19 is the flu with added hysteria. And the real damage being done by Covid-19 is in our reaction to it.